Currently, the tax-credit statute requires buyers to fully close on their purchases no later than Nov. 30. The whole process of negotiating offers, signing sales contracts, applying for a loan and completing the closing can easily extend for two months or more.

Given the rapidly approaching deadline, what's the likelihood that Congress will allow at least a little extra time? Will the tax credit be extended for another six to 12 months, continuing to stimulate the housing market recovery and economy?

This year, the two biggest housing trade groups: the 1.2 million-member National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders, are spending the month mounting unusually intense grass-roots lobbying campaigns to make the case for extending the credit, and maybe even expanding it.

According to economists at the National Association of Realtors, anywhere from 300,000 to 350,000 additional sales of houses nationwide will be stimulated this year by the credit. Each home sale generates approximately $63,000 in downstream ripple effects elsewhere in the economy.

Congress is showing early signs that they may be getting the message. Both houses already have pending bills to extend the credit for another year.

Can any of this happen before the Nov. 30 deadline? The key complicating factor here is Congress' attention is focused on a long list of higher-profile, pressing issues that will get attention before anything else in September and October: health-care reform, financial system regulatory reform, climate change and energy, and a new consumer financial protection agency, among others.

Furthermore, a tax credit extension would cost billions in lost revenues, a big negative when the federal budget deficit already is sinking in record territory.

In the end, given the political economics of the housing credit, the odds favor some sort of extension, probably later rather than sooner.

James Tibbetts is an associate broker with West Seattle Windermere.

Full disclosure: James Tibbetts is an advertiser with the West Seattle Herald.