ROBINSON NEWSPAPERS

Monorail planners should figure out how many miles of guideway and how many stations can be built for $1.5 billion and, if necessary, get ready to put an altered version of the Green Line before the voters this fall, said Cleve Stockmeyer, one of two elected representatives on the Seattle Monorail Project board of directors.

Stockmeyer also recommended building a dual-beam guideway on the West Seattle Bridge instead of a single-beam guideway as had previously been planned.

Mayor Greg Nickels weighed into the fray last week with a letter telling the monorail board of directors it has until Sept. 15 to come up with a new plan.

"While the problems are complex, the options available at this time are straightforward," Nickels wrote. "Seattle voters can be asked to approve increased taxes to support completion of the entire project or to approve a significantly reduced project scope."

If the monorail board takes no action, "the city of Seattle will have to independently determine if continuation of the monorail project is in the best interests of the city," the mayor concluded his letter.

Meanwhile Jonathan Buchter, finance director of the Seattle Monorail Project, said it is possible the monorail could break even on operating costs by 2020.

Most revenue to the monorail will come from fares paid by passengers. Planners expect fares will cover an estimated 74 percent of operating costs, Buchter said. They also anticipate the Green Line could be carrying 13,740,000 riders by 2010 and 18,390,000 in 2030. Those figures are based on population projections for Seattle.

As they did their calculations, analysts estimated the regular fare on the monorail in 2020 would be $2.35. Senior citizens and youngsters would ride for a lower fare, they said. They anticipate the price of fares would rise with the rate of inflation.

The Seattle Monorail Project board of directors can set fares to achieve social goals, such as lower fares for elderly, young or low-income passengers, according to monorail attorney Ross Macfarlane.

Planners are studying the potential of charging an additional dollar for passengers who ride the monorail through downtown.

Another idea is to charge an added event fee, which would be collected as people get off the monorail at the sports stadiums to attend a Mariners or Seahawks game.

Tourists could buy an "explorer pass," which would be good for three days worth of monorail service.

Messages to visiting conventioneers could be placed on the monorail TV screens too.

Allowing advertising on the Green Line is expected to cover about 9 percent of operating costs. Planners estimate $1 million a year could be earned by allowing cars on three monorail trains to be "wrapped" in an end-to-end advertisement. Some Metro buses are similarly wrapped in commercial messages.

Stores along the Green Line could offer discounts to monorail passengers. Nordstrom, for example, could advertise a one-hour special sale at its downtown store aboard monorail trains heading into downtown.

Each station and train could be equipped with television sets tuned to a cable TV channel. Analysts estimated the system could show commercials about 25 percent of the time.

About 50 percent of the operating costs of the average mass transit system is taken up by wages for drivers, said Kristina Hill, acting president of the monorail board of directors. Since the monorail is to be automated, it will save a lot of money with no drivers or route supervisors to pay, she said.

Hill also pointed out that most mass transit systems are subsidized in perpetuity. But the monorail is expected to be paid off, and its subsidies eventually stopped.

"Those are two very different approaches," Hill said.

Tourist products based on the monorail are expected to account for 16 percent of future revenue. The Seattle Monorail Project recently got a patent on its abstract logo, so it can sell hats, T-shirts and other merchandise branded with the monorail.

The monorail board of directors continues to meet weekly as it sorts through the options for the project and hunts for a new executive director.

Tim St. Clair can be reached at tims@westseattleherald.com or 932-0300.