Mike Nelson has predicted a "photovoltaic revolution" as solar power is on the verge of becoming a leading competitor in the world's top energy sources. But it all depends on consumer demand.

While the cost of solar power still has a ways to go, Washington State has made some strides in boosting its accessibility among residential users.

Ballot measure Initiative 937 that passed last fall requires utilities to get at least 15 percent of their energy from renewable resources by 2020. Plus, under state law, any public or private utility company can credit its customers for the energy they generate through "net metering."

It allows homeowners to get full retail value for most, or all of the electricity they produce by banking their excess electricity into the electric grid to withdraw it later, free of charge.

Also, homeowners who install Washington-made solar equipment are now entitled to subsidies.

This is all good news for bringing solar into the residential market, said Nelson, director of the Washington State University Northwest Solar Center in Shoreline, but the state needs to "artificially intervene" and heavily subsidize solar so it can become cost effective in the residential market sooner rather than later.

"The cost will only decrease as we implement the technology," Nelson said, last week during a presentation on solar technology in the Pacific Northwest at the Sunset Hill Community Club.

The event was sponsored by the Sunset Hill Community Association, which is looking to replace the roof on its 85-year-old clubhouse and add solar arrays. The group is also interested in acquiring a nearby surplus Seattle City Light substation and other public land to create solar generation centers around Ballard.

Nelson began his career in solar technology the same way most things happen in science, "an act of belligerence and stupidity..." he said.

When a power company knocked down trees near his property in Eastern Washington, Nelson figured it would be easier just to become self sufficient. So he went off the grid.

Now his company is active in pursuing programs through state and local governments that aim to infiltrate the market with renewable energy technologies.

"I think solar is cool," said Nelson.

He marvels at the relative simplicity of the technology. The core of the solar cell, or photovoltaic cell, is a thin layer of silicon, which is produced from silica, or sand, one of the most common elements in the Earth's crust. Sunlight causes photons and electrons to react, pressure builds and is converted to usable energy.

"This is as close to magic as we're going to get ... ," Nelson said. "This is good efficient technology. Anyone who is telling you it's not efficient just isn't doing the math."

But if solar technology saves money for homeowners and utility companies, why is it not leading the energy market? Nelson has a simple explanation.

"It's not the cheapest way to do something," he said. "As Americans, we have to learn to get over that. But (utility companies) won't do it unless they hear from you. No bureaucracy changes course. They are all captains of the Titanic."

While solar is still primarily an idea here, Nelson gave examples of European countries that have taken an American born technology and made it a reality.

The Dutch have development policies that mandate solar technology on new buildings, including residential. Germany has entire cities that run on solar energy; 59 percent of all solar systems are in Germany. About 470 systems have been installed in Washington, with the bulk here on the Western side of the state.

Total energy usage is expected to grow significantly during the next century, and the stock of fossil fuels will continue to decline.

"With China and India consuming coal-we're seeing peak coal in the same era," Nelson said. "We can't rely on old methods of energy planning to get us through the very difficult problems we face in the next 15 years."

Still, billions more is spent federally on coal and oil than renewables. From 1943 to 1999, $4 billion was spent on solar research and development, compared to $400 billion on coal and $150 billion on oil, said Nelson.

It's widely known that coal and oil prices will only go up, but Nelson can't say the same for solar.

"Solar is the only thing I know of on a downward curve," he said. "But we have lost muscle in terms of developing the technology that was born here."

Contrary to an obvious assumption that overcast Seattle doesn't make for good solar breeding ground, Nelson said the area is primed and ready to use solar energy. Net metering allows Seattle and Western Washington to store summer sun for the wintery, rainy months.

Also, by using solar in the summer, energy can be stored and conserved in the Northwest's hydroelectric dams.

At Nelson's 850-square-foot Shoreline home, he uses about 3.5 kilowatt-hours a day, while the average home in Seattle uses 30. It's not due to any radical outward-bound lifestyle. His has all the comforts of modern convenience, but his appliances are energy efficient.

His 2.5-kilowatt system generates three times more energy annually than his home demands - in Shoreline, nonetheless.

The solar systems are easy to install yourself, said Nelson, and he recommends no more than a 4-kilowatt home-system. That will supply about 13 kilowatt-hours a day, or a third of the electricity needed for an average Seattle home.

Solar modules currently run about $4.50. One kilowatt is equal to about 100 square feet, or roughly $8,000. An inverter is also required. It allows the electric meter to spin backward in order to sell power back to the utility.

Not all sites are good for solar, though. Just 10 percent shading will cause an 80 percent drop in output.

"Trees and solar hate each other because they both want the same thing - sunlight," said Nelson.

Go to northwestsolarcenter.org for more information or contact Mike Nelson at miknel@seanet.org, 396-8446.

Rebekah Schilperoort may be reached at 783.1244 or rebekahs@robinsonnews.com