Housing demand'spring-loaded'
Mon, 07/28/2008
While it's no secret that the nation is taking a hit with increased foreclosures and decreased home prices, "Area 140" home prices have been relatively stable. No, "Area 140" is not where our government hides Martians. It's the Multiple Listing Service's designation for West Seattle.
Area 140's biggest economic downers over the last year were not home prices but rather inventory, and its troubled twin, "Days on Market."
In May 2007, 440 houses, including townhouses but not condominiums, were listed, averaging 38 days to sell. One year later the inventory increased to 634 houses, averaging 93 days to sell.
Prices increased slightly from $464,000 to $467,000. Some industry experts view these numbers as optimistic since they do not include unsold houses that sat for months and were then taken off the market.
"I sometimes feel like a taxi driver showing property around," said Jennifer Suemnicht, with Re/Max Metro Realty in Seattle. Her listing for a tidy, two-bedroom house in Highland Park for $249,950 is getting attention from those who can't swing a higher mortgage on Seattle's north side.
"Buyers are shopping around more than a year ago," she said. "First-time buyers might start looking north, like Ballard. I do have a listing there for $550,000. But there are harder restrictions than a year ago to get a mortgage and it seems even qualified buyers get turned away. So I might take them to Highland Park and South Park. Some might feel it's not the same (as Ballard) but the close proximity to Westwood Village and the Junction is a fantastic asset."
"There is now a suppression of demand," said James Tibbetts, a veteran realtor with Windermere Real Estate in Fauntleroy who grew up in West Seattle. "People will only hold back so long. But demand is spring-loaded and will burst. Certainly the press has caused people to put their plans to buy a house on hold. People who have money are waiting to feel more comfortable."
Tibbetts acknowledged that mortgage companies have tightened the reigns on loaning to those with financial challenges like poor credit and little savings, most acute to first-time buyers.
Tibbetts sounded optimistic when discussing West Seattle's market. "I sold two listings last week, and got over the asking price on one."
"The psychology of the mortgage meltdown caused the brakes to be put on the real estate market," said realtor Dawn Leverett with Windermere-West Seattle. She is also president of the West Seattle Chamber of Commerce.
Like Tibbetts she also feels the press has played a large role in the doom-and-gloom perception of buying a house today but acknowledged it now takes more effort to attract the attention of a buyer.
"More inventory means the house has to be positioned well and market-ready," she said. "I recommend sellers get a 'pre-listing inspection' to become aware of repair issues before selling rather than waiting until a buyer orders their inspection. Address those issues or price accordingly.
"Staging is huge, so that potential buyers don't have spaces left to their imagination," added Leverett. "An odd space in your house, like a very small room, not necessarily a bedroom, can be staged as an office. A big unused space at the top of your landing can be staged as a children's play area."
"I read that 95-percent of people see how things are, not how they can be," said Suzanne Lambalot, a RE/MAX Metro realtor and colleague of Suemnicht. "Often empty rooms look smaller. People don't get a feeling of scale. If a house is still occupied, remove personal items like photographs. You want buyers to see themselves living there."
Lambalot possesses some accent pieces to place in empty houses. "Otherwise I hire a stager who brings in furniture and we decorate tastefully." She has even hired a "feng shui professional."
Of course, feng shui and accent pieces only help if the potential buyer has the money for the home in the first place.
"You'd be surprised how many people don't have any savings," said Ginny Lee of Evergreen Home Loans, a privately owned mortgage bank on South First Avenue near Safeco Field. A West Seattle resident for 21 years, she said that while zero-down programs are a thing of the past, the Federal Housing Administration, or FHA, still offers three-percent down loans to qualified buyers.
"Last year you could qualify with zero down and a 580 credit score. Now you need a score of 680 to 700. You can get a mortgage with a 620 score, but your interest rate will increase."
"Lenders want to see you spend no more than about 36-percent of your net household income on your mortgage payment," said Kevin Ehlers of Cobalt Mortgage, Inc., in Kirkland, who specializes in "Area 140" homes.
"The average-priced West Seattle house the first five months of 2008 was $465,000," he said. "Your total payment at that price would be about $2,700 with 20-percent down with a 6.25 (percent) 30-year fixed rate. You'd need to net $90,000 a year, about one Microsoft salary. I realize that's a lot of money. And if you only put 3-percent down with an FHA your monthly payment goes way up."
"I am convinced mortgage rates will increase while customers wait too long to spend," said Washington State University economics professor, Glen Crellin. He is the director of Washington State Center for Real Estate Research and chairs the Central Puget Sound Real Estate Research Committee. The bulk of his research breaks down into Washington's counties.
"King County is not expecting a significant decline in value. The dilemma is, do you wait for home prices to drop slightly before you buy, then risk an increase in interest rates? It's a very difficult call to make."
Crellin said that because Seattle home prices are higher than other areas of the country some out-of-staters would have trouble buying into our market, but not all.
"Look where people are coming from-California and other places with equity," Crellin pointed out. "Many getting hired into Seattle's high-tech market come from other high-income areas and do not suffer sticker shock. Still, I feel sorry for people coming from Michigan and Ohio."
Steve Shay can be reached at steves@robinsonnews.com