Sea-Tac Airport plane traffic forecast defies logic
Tue, 11/02/2010
(Editor's Note: This letter was sent to Port of Seattle commissioners with a copy to the Times/News.)
Honorable Port Commission:
I attended your staff presentation Tuesday, October 27, at Sea-Tac Airport regarding airport noise problems. I also attended your staff presentations to the public.
You could drive a 747 through the gap between the information you are given and the information given to the public in your name.
Skimming some of the discrepancies: The Hush House is an old issue. Would the Department of Labor and Industries even allow someone to work inside a hush house?
The local public has requested that few remaining night flights be discontinued as they are stressful to sleep and costly losers for the Port and the airlines. The FAA response is waffled.
Your staff gave you an Air Traffic forecast, which defies modeling logic. The forecast chart clearly shows a steady drop in air traffic from almost 400,000 flights in 1995 down to just over 300,000 by December 31, 2010. By shear magic on January 1, 2011 the projected forecast shows that air traffic will suddenly grow from just over 300,000 to 419,860 by 2021. If the forecast had properly followed modeling logic it would have shown only 300,000 flights by 2021. This is a significant drop of 120,000 flights below the unsupported 419,860 forecast.
The airlines that remain are buying and filling larger more profitable aircraft.
The staff projection ignored the bankruptcies and mergers in the aircraft business. Ignored crew reductions and half filled flights. Ignored the Boeing, Airbus and Bombardier aircraft orders. Ignored the recession and on.
Dan Caldwell
Des Moines